加州理工大学毕业演讲：想象力就是极限
本周分享给大家的，就是埃隆·马斯克2020年在加州理工大学毕业典礼的演讲《永不言弃》。
All right. I’d like to thank you for leaving “crazy person” out of the introduction.
感谢您没有在介绍中说我是一个“疯子”。
So I thought — I was trying to think what’s the most useful thing that I — what I can say that can actually be helpful and useful to you in the future.
我试着想过自己身上最有用的东西是什么，我分享什么内容会对你们的未来有所帮助。
And I thought, perhaps tell the story of how I sort of came to be here. How did these things happen? And maybe there are lessons there. I often find myself wondering, how did this happen.
我想，或许我可以讲一个关于我是如何走到今天的故事。这些事情是如何发生的？也许你们可以从中有所收获。我经常发现自己在思考，这件事是如何发生的。
When I was young, I didn’t really know what I was going to do when I got older. People kept asking me. But then eventually, I thought the idea of inventing things would be really cool.
小时候，我真的不知道长大以后要做什么。人们一直在问我这个问题。但最后，我觉得发明东西这个想法真的很酷。
And the reason I thought that was because I read a quote from Arthur C. Clark which said that, “A sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.’ And that’s really true.
我之所以这样认为，是因为我看到了亚瑟·克拉克（Arthur C. Clark）的一句话：“足够先进的技术无异于魔法。”这的确是真的。
If you go back say, 300 years, the things we take for granted today, you’d be burned at stake for. Being able to fly. That’s crazy. Being able to see over long distances, being able to communicate, having effectively with the Internet as a group mind of sorts, and having access to all the world’s information instantly from almost anywhere on the earth. This stuff that really would be magic – that would be considered magic in times past.
如果你回到300年前，跟人们说起我们今天认为理所当然的一些事情，那么你会面临被烧死的危险。人居然会飞，这太疯狂了。还能望远、通信、有效地使用互联网进行各种形式的集体合作， 还可以即时接触到世界上各地所有的信息。这些事情真得就像魔法一样——而在过去，人们认为这就是魔法。
In fact, I think it actually goes beyond that, there are many things that we take for granted today that weren’t even imagined in times past, that weren’t even in the realm of magic. So it actually goes beyond that. So I thought, well if I can do some of those things –basically if I can advance technology, then that is like magic and that would be really cool.
事实上，我认为还不止于此，我们今天习以为常的很多事情，在过去人们甚至都想不到，自然是一种超脱人们想象的魔法。因此我在想，如果能做一些事情——如果我能改进技术，那就会像施展魔法一样，真的很酷。
I always had an existential crisis, because I was trying to figure out ‘what does it all mean?’ Like what’s the purpose of things? And I came to the conclusion that if we can advance the knowledge of the world, if we can do things that expand the scope and scale of consciousness, then we’re better able to ask the right questions and become more enlightened. And that’s the only way forward.
我一直都有生存危机，因为我曾试图弄清楚“这一切意味着什么？”“做这些事情的目的是什么？” 我得出的结论是，如果我们能够提高全世界的知识水平，并且做一些能扩大意识范围和规模的事情，那么我们就能更好地提出正确的问题，并变得更加有见识。这是前进的唯一途径。
So, I studied physics and business, because I figured in order to do a lot of these things you need to know how the universe works and you need to know how the economy works. And you also need to be able to bring a lot of people together to work with you to create something. Because it’s very difficult to do something as individuals if it’s a significant technology.
因此，我学习了物理学和商业知识，因为我认为要做到很多事情，就需要去了解宇宙和经济的运行方式。而且，你还要有能力将很多人聚集在一起，进行团队协作，共同创造一些事物。因为如果一项技术非常重要的话，那么独挑大梁就会是一件相当困难的事情。
So, I originally came out to California to try to figure out how to improve the energy density of electric vehicles –basically to try to figure out if there was an advanced capacitor that could serve as an alternative to batteries. And that was in 1995.
因此，我最初来到加利福尼亚州的目的是为了尝试找出提高电动汽车能量密度的方法——基本上就是为了确定是否有可以替代电池的高级电容器。当时是1995年。
That’s also when the Internet started to happen. And I thought well I could either pursue this technology, where success may not be one of the possible outcomes, which is always tricky, or participate in the Internet and be part of it. So, I decided to drop out.
那也是互联网刚刚出现的时候。 我当时认为，我可以采用高级电容器，即使有可能失败，即便这一直都很困难。或者我可以加入互联网行业，成为互联网行业的一份子。因此，我决定退学。
Fortunately, we’re past graduation, so, I can’t be accused of recommending that to you. And I did some Internet stuff, you know. I’ve done a few things here and there. One of which is PayPal.
幸运的是，我们已经毕业了，所以即使我推荐你们这么做的话也不会受到谴责。你们都知道我从事了一些与互联网相关的工作。我做过很多事情, PayPal就是其中之一。
Maybe it’s helpful to say, one of the things that was important then in the creation of PayPal was how it started. Because initially – the initial thought with PayPal was to create a conglomeration of financial services, so if you have one place where all of your financial services needs could be seamlessly integrated and works smoothly.
也许这么说会对你们很有帮助，创建PayPal时很重要的一件事就是想好如何开始。最初的想法是把 PayPal创建成一个金融服务集合体，那么就会有一个地方可以将所有金融服务需求无缝整合并顺利运作。
And we had a little feature, which was through e-mail payments. Whenever we’d show the system off to someone, we’d show the hard part, which was the conglomeration of financial services, which is quite difficult to put together. Nobody was interested.
PayPal还有一个小功能就是通过电子邮件付款。每当向人们展示该系统时，我们都会展示出其中复杂困难的部分，那就是金融服务的集合体，整合金融服务很难做到。因此，没有人对此感兴趣。
Then we showed people e-mail payments, which was quite easy and everybody was interested. So, I think it’s important to take feedback from your environment. You want to be as closed-loop as possible.
后来，我们向人们展示了电子邮件付款，这个付款方式很容易，而且每个人都很感兴趣。所以，我认为从周边环境中获取反馈很重要。要尽可能形成反馈的闭环。
So, we focused on e-mail payments and tried to make that work. And that’s what really got things to take off. But, if we hadn’t responded to what people said, then we probably would not have been successful. So, it’s important to look for things like that and focus on them when you seem them, and you correct your prior assumptions.
因此，我们专注于电子邮件支付，并试图把它做好。这才是真正取得成功的关键所在。但是，如果我们没有回应人们的评价，那么我们可能就无法成功。因此，重要的是要寻找反馈，专注于解决问题，并纠正先前的假设。
Going from PayPal, I thought well, what are some of the other problems that are likely to most affect the future of humanity? It really wasn’t from the perspective of, ‘what’s the best way to make money,’ which is okay, but, it was really ‘what do I think is going to most affect the future of humanity.’
创建PayPal之后，我想了想还有哪些其他的问题最有可能影响人类的未来？我确实不是从“什么是最好的赚钱方式”这个角度出发的，当然这也可以，但是，实际上我思考的是“什么会对人类未来产生最大的影响”。
So the biggest terrestrial problem we’ve got is sustainable energy. But the production and consumption of energy in a sustainable manner. If we don’t solve that in this century, we’re in deep trouble.
我们所面临的最大的大陆问题就是可持续能源，能源的生产和消耗是否以可持续的方式进行。如果不能在本世纪解决这个问题，那么我们将深陷困境。
And the other one being the extension of life beyond earth to make life multi-planetary. So that’s the basis for — the latter is the basis for SpaceX and the former is the basis for Tesla and SolarCity.
另一个问题就是将生命延续到地球以外，让生命得以存活在多个星球之上。因此，这个问题便成了SpaceX的基础，而可持续能源问题则是特斯拉( Tesla )和SolarCity的基础。
When I started SpaceX, initially, I thought that well, there’s no way one could start a rocket company. I wasn’t that crazy. But, then, I thought, well, what is a way to increase NASA’s budget? That was actually my initial goal. I thought well if we could do a low cost mission to Mars, Oasis, which would land with seeds in dehydrated nutrient gel, then hydrate them upon landing. And you’d have this great photo of green plants in a red background.
刚开始创建SpaceX时，我认为不可能会有人能够创办一家火箭公司。我没那么疯狂。但是后来我想，有什么办法可以增加美国国家航空航天局 ( NASA ) 的预算呢？这其实是我最初的目标。我想如果我们能在火星开展一项名为“火星绿洲”的低成本任务，也就是把种子放在脱水的营养凝胶中，然后播散在火星上，一登陆火星营养凝胶就会发生水合作用，那么你就会看到这张红色背景下拍摄的绿植照片。
The public tends to respond to precedence and superlatives. And this would be the first life on Mars and the furthest life had ever traveled as far as we know.
公众倾向对优先级和最高级做出反应。这将是火星上出现的第一个生命，而据我们所知，也是距离我们最遥远的生命。
And I thought well that would get people really excited and increase NASA’s budget. So obviously the financial outcome from such a mission would probably be zero. So anything better than that was on the upside.
我认为这会非常振奋人心，并提高NASA的预算。显然，这样的任务不会带来任何财政收入，但是从积极的层面上看，这会产生更大的利益。
So, I went to Russia three times to look at buying a refurbished ICBM… because that was the best deal. And I can tell you it was very weird going there in late 2001-2002 going to the Russian rocket forces and saying ‘I’d like to buy two of your biggest rockets, but you can keep the nukes.’ That’s a lot more. That was 10 years ago, I guess.
我去过俄罗斯三次，目的是为了购买翻新过的洲际弹道导弹，因为这最划算。而且我可以告诉你的是，在2001年至2002年末去俄罗斯这件事就已经很奇怪了，而且还要跟俄罗斯的火箭部队说：“我想购买两个最大的火箭，但您可以保留核武器。”这就更加不可思议了。而这已经是十年前的事了。
They thought I was crazy, but I did have money. So, that was okay.
他们觉得我疯了，但我确实有钱，所以也就买到了。
After making several trips to Russia, I came to the conclusion that, my initial impression was wrong about – because my initial thought was, well, that there is not enough will to explore and expand beyond earth and have a Mars base, that kind of thing. That was wrong.
几次前往俄罗斯后，我得出的结论是，我最初的想法是错的——因为起初我的想法是，人们没有足够的意愿去探索和扩展地球以外的地方并拥有一个火星基地。但是我错了。
In fact, there’s plenty of will, particularly in the United States. Because United States is a nation of explorers, so people who came here from other parts of the world. I think the United States is really a distillation of the spirit of human exploration. But if people think it’s impossible, then well it’s going to completely break the federal budget, then they’re not going to do it.
实际上，很多人都有意愿这么做，尤其是在美国。因为美国是一个探险者的国度，因此来自世界各国的人们都会来到这里。我认为美国确实升华了人类的探索精神。但是，如果人们认为这件事是不可能的，那这个任务将完全超出联邦的预算，他们也就不会去做这件事了。
So, after my third trip, I said, okay, what we really need to do here is try to solve the space transport problem and started SpaceX. And this was against the advice of pretty much everyone I talked to.
因此，第三次去过俄罗斯后，我说，好吧，我们真正要做的是尝试解决太空运输问题并开始创办SpaceX。几乎每个和我交谈过的人都非常反对我的建议。
One friend made me watch a bunch of videos of rockets blowing up. Let me tell you he wasn’t far wrong. It was tough going there in the beginning. Because I never built anything physical. I mean I built like a model rocket as a kid and that kind of thing. But I never had a company that built any physical. So, I had to figure out how to do all these things and bring together the right team of people.
有一个朋友给我看了许多火箭爆炸的视频。我想告诉你们的是，他没错。一开始真的很难做到。因为我从来没有建造过任何实体火箭。我的意思是，我只在小时候做过像火箭模型之类的东西，但是我从来没有创办过建造实体火箭的公司。因此，我必须想清楚怎么做到所有的这些事情，并组织合适的团队。
And we did all that, and then, failed three times. It was tough, tough going.
所有的事情我们都做了，然而我们失败了三次。很难，真的很难。
Think about a rocket, the passing grade is100%. And you don’t get to actually test the rocket in the real environment that is going to be in. So, I think the best analogy for rocket engineers is, if you want to create a really complicated software, you can’t run the software as an integrated whole, and you can’t run it on the computer, it’s intended to run on, but, the first time you run it on the computer, it must run with no bugs. That’s basically the essence of it. So, we missed the mark there.
想想，一枚火箭的及格分为100％。而你无法在即将发射火箭的真实环境中测试火箭。我认为这对于火箭工程师来说，最好的比喻就是，假设你要开发一个非常复杂的软件，你却无法整体运行该软件，而且软件原本应该在计算机上运行，但你却无法做到这一点。即便是在这种情况下，你第一次在计算机上运行该软件时，也必须要保证软件不会出现任何错误。这基本上就是问题的本质。因此，我们的火箭无法合格。
The first launch, I was picking up bits of rocket near the launch site. And we learned with each successive flight. And we were able to, eventually with the fourth flight in 2008, reach orbit. That was also with the last bit of money that we had. Thank goodness that happened. I think the saying is fourth time is the charm?
第一次发射火箭时，我在发射场附近捡到了一些火箭碎片。我们从每次连续的飞行中学习经验，终于在2008年的第四次飞行中，火箭到达轨道。那也是我们的最后一笔钱了。谢天谢地，我们终于成功了。我想这难道就是人们所说的第四次的魅力吗？
So, we got the Falcon 1 to orbit. And then, began to scale it up to the Falcon 9, with an order of magnitude more thrust, it’s around a million pounds of thrust. We managed to get that to orbit, and then developed the Dragon spacecraft, which recently docked to the space station and returned to earth from the space station.
我们将猎鹰1号送入了轨道。然后开始将火箭升级到猎鹰9号，以更大的推力——约为一百万磅成功将其送入轨道，然后开发了龙飞船 ( Dragon spacecraft ) ，该飞船最近停靠在空间站，并从空间站返回地球。
That was a white-knuckle event. It was a huge relief. I still can’t believe it actually happened.
这件事令人心惊胆颤，我也感到如释重负。我依然无法相信这的的确确发生了。
But there’s lot more that must happen beyond for humanity to become a space ranked civilization and ultimately a multi-planet species. And that’s something I think it’s vitally important. And I hope that some of you will participate in that either at SpaceX or other companies. Because it’s just really one of the most important things for the preservation and extension of consciousness.
但是，要让人类文明在太空中首屈一指，人类最终要成为多行星的物种，我们要做的事情还有很多。我认为这是至关重要的。我希望你们中的一些人可以加入SpaceX或其他公司。因为这对于意识的保持和扩展而言确实是一件非常重要的事。
It’s worth noting that Earth has been around for 4 billion years, but civilization in terms of having writing has been about 10,000 years, and that’s being generous.
值得注意的是，地球已经存活了40亿年，但是据文字记载，文明的出现距今大约有10,000年。
So, it’s really somewhat of a tenuous existence that civilization and consciousness has been on earth. And I’m actually fairly optimistic about the future of earth. So I don’t want to people sort of have the wrong impression like we’re all about to die. I think things will most likely be okay for along time on earth. Not for sure, but, most likely.
因此，文明和意识在地球上的存在确实有点微不足道。实际上，我对地球的未来相当乐观。我不想让人们误以为像我们快要死了。我认为在很长的一段时间内，地球上一切都会没事。我不是非常确定，但是很有可能是这样。
But even if it’s 99% likely, a 1% chance is still worth spending a fair bit of effort to ensure that we have —back up the biosphere, and planetary redundancy if you will. And I think it’s really quite important.
但是，即使有99％的可能性，仍然值得我们付出巨大的努力以确保抓住1%的机会，保护生物圈，并尽可能地保护地球。我认为这非常重要。
And in order to do that, there’s breakthrough that needs to occur which is to create a rapidly and completely reusable transport system to Mars, which is one of those things that’s right on the borderline of impossible. But, that’s the sort of the thing that we’re going to try to achieve with SpaceX.
为了做到这一点，我们需要实现一个突破，那就是建立一个快速、可完全重复利用的火星交通系统，这是一件几乎不可能的事情。但是，这就是我们即将要通过SpaceX实现的事情。
And then, on the Tesla front, the goal with Tesla was really to try to show what electric cars can do. Because people had the wrong impression, and we had to change people’s perceptions of electric vehicle. Because they used to think of it as something that was slow and ugly, with low range, like a golf cart. So, that’s why we created the Tesla Roadster, to show that it can be fast, attractive and long range.
说到特斯拉，特斯拉的目标实际上是展示电动汽车的功能。人们对电动汽车有个误解，因此我们不得不改变他们的看法。人们过去认为电动汽车像高尔夫球车一样缓慢且不美观，行驶范围也很小。因此，这就是我们制造Tesla Roadster的原因，我们要展示出它可以快速行驶，外型美观且续航里程很长。
And it’s amazing how — even though you can show that something works on paper, and the calculations are very clear, until you actually have the physical object, and they can drive it, it doesn’t really sink in for people. So that I think is something worth nothing.
令人惊讶的是，即使你可以证明某些东西在图纸上是切实可行的，并且计算结果非常明了，但是只有把实物制造出来，并驾驶上路的时候，人们才会真正接受。因此，我认为纸上谈兵是毫无价值的。
If you’re going to create a company, the first thing you should try to do is create a working prototype. Everything looks great on PowerPoint. You can make anything work on PowerPoint. If you have an actual demonstration article, even if it’s in primitive form, that’s much more effective in convincing people.
如果要创建公司，那么你要做的第一件事就是创建一个可行的原型。在PPT上，所有事情看起来都很不错。但是你要去落实PPT上展示的每件事。如果你手上有一篇实际的示范文章，即使是原始形式的文章，也可以有效地说服人们。
So we made the Tesla Roadster, and now we’re coming out soon with model S, which is a 4-door sedan. Because we made the Tesla Roadster people said, ‘Sure we always knew you could make a car like that, it’s an expensive car and it’s low volume and small and all that but can you make a real car?’ Okay, fine, we’re going to make that, too. So, that’s coming out soon.
因此，我们制造了Tesla Roadster，现在我们即将推出S型号的四门轿车。因为我们制造Tesla Roadster的时候人们说：“我们一直都知道你们可以制造出这样的汽车，但是价格太贵了而且体积很小，你能制造出一辆实用点的汽车吗？”好的，我们也会制造出这样的汽车，而且很快就能上市。
And so that’s where things are and hopefully, there are lessons to be drawn there.
这就是我想要分享的，希望你们可以有所收获。
I think the overreaching point I want to make is you guys are the magicians of the 21th century, don’t let anything hold you back. Imagination is the limit. Go out there and create some magic.
我想再提一个观点，你们是21世纪的魔术师，不要让任何事情阻碍你们。想象力就是极限。走出校园并创造奇迹吧。
Thank you.
谢谢大家！
